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Home prices surged in November, but at a slower rate than in October, S&P Case-Shiller says

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A “For Sale” sign is seen outside a home in New York.
Shannon Stapleton | Reuters

Even as the housing market entered its traditionally slower season in November, home prices showed big gains from a year ago.

Prices rose 18.8% year over year on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Yet that was a slower rate than the October pace, which was a 19% annual gain.

The 10-city composite rose 16.8% annually, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- city composite grew 18.3%, down from 18.5% in October.

“Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November),” noted Craig Lazarra, managing director of S&P DJI.

Some markets are posting some stunning gains. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November, with increases of 32.2%, 29.0% and 26.6% respectively.

Chicago, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C. showed the smallest annual gain, although they were all still up around 11%.

Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.

Mortgage rates didn’t move much in October and November, holding between 3% and 3.25% for the average on the popular 30-year fixed. While that was slightly higher than the early summer levels, it was still historically low and considerably lower than where rates are now. Rates are now about 75 basis points above year-ago levels. Low rates over the last two years have given buyers more purchasing power and consequently fueled today’s sky-high prices.

“We should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices,” added Lazarra.

A recent report from Realtor.com found that 14 out of the top 50 largest U.S. cities experienced listing price declines over the prior year in December.

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